The record
Every settled match we have priced, scored in public. Nothing is removed because it went badly.
Scored in public
0.1917
BRIER SCORE
0.2685
NEVER-A-DRAW BASELINE
391
MATCHES SCORED
Expected 98.0 draws across those matches; 105 landed — a predicted rate of 25.1% against an actual 26.9%.
The twelve numbers the market rated likeliest to draw each week produced 4.6 draws on average across 8 weeks: 38.5% against 26.9% for the coupon as a whole.
| week | season | expected | actual | top 12 | brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | English 2026 | 12.2 | 11 | 5/12 | 0.1669 |
| 16 | English 2026 | 12.1 | 10 | 4/12 | 0.1615 |
| 15 | English 2026 | 12.2 | 12 | 3/12 | 0.1829 |
| 14 | English 2026 | 11.7 | 7 | 3/12 | 0.1291 |
| 13 | English 2026 | 12.1 | 14 | 8/12 | 0.1913 |
| 12 | English 2026 | 12.7 | 19 | 5/12 | 0.2504 |
| 11 | English 2026 | 12.8 | 15 | 2/12 | 0.2198 |
| 10 | English 2026 | 11.1 | 17 | 7/12 | 0.2515 |
| 8 | English 2026 | 0.5 | 0 | - | 0.0522 |
| 7 | English 2026 | 0.3 | 0 | - | 0.0644 |
| 6 | English 2026 | 0.3 | 0 | - | 0.0829 |
| 5 | English 2026 | 0.3 | 0 | - | 0.0813 |